Just a quick follow up post to the “Non-Prophet Presidential Predictions (or Probabilities, Perhaps)” post of a few days ago… Did you know that, given our election system in the United States, there is a non-zero probability that the result of tomorrow’s elections could be a Romney-Biden administration, in which Mr. Mitt Romney is the president and Mr. Joe Biden is the vice-president? Believe it or not, there is!
Since a presidential candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes to be declared president and there are 538 up for grabs, that leaves the possibility open for each candidate’s receiving only 269. I was playing with an Electoral College calculator yesterday (feel free to do so yourself: Time Magazine: Electoral College Calculator Map) and came up with a not-too-unrealistic scenario in which exactly this happens. (Admittedly, I did this on purpose, with an even split as a goal.) Here’s the resulting map:
This isn’t the only scenario, as others have noted.
What happens in that case? Well, the Constitution specifies that the House of Representatives gets into the act, as does the Senate, and based on how it looks like things would fall out, Governor Romney would be named President and Vice President Biden would keep his seat. Weird, huh?
If you’d like to know how that would actually play out, there’s a great article providing the details at, of all places, The Asian Tribune. Check it out here if you’re curious.
There are lots of other reasons that this election may not truly be settled tomorrow. This possibility, to me, would be the most fun to watch… Sort of like hitting your head with a rock might be more fun that hitting your head with a hammer. By which I mean to say, not really fun at all. 🙂